The Weak institutional capacity in the Iraqi government to activate the collection of contributions and increase the number of self-employed (private sector), and workers in small enterprises or family businesses, where it is not possible to bear the percentage of contributions in pension systems, and with the transition in the Iraqi economy to a market economy and the expansion of the role of the private sector, the system Dual retirement is likely to impede this transition.in this work two probabilities were studied to shows the future for part of economic section in Iraq. The two sections were: optimistic scenario for the period (2030-2023) And the second, the pessimistic landscape for the period (2030-2023).