Modeling Factors Affecting the Number of Tuberculosis Cases in Indonesia Using Geographically Weighted Generalized Poisson Regression

Authors

  • Sri Pingit Wulandari
  • Mumtazah Nurul ‘Aini

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is currently still a public health problem both in Indonesia and internationally. Indonesia is ranked 2nd with the highest TB sufferers in the world. In 2020, the number of tuberculosis cases found was 351,936 cases, a decrease when compared to 2019 which was 568,987 cases. Based on the Strategic Plan of the Ministry of Health 2020, the targeted tuberculosis success rate is 90%, then nationally the success rate of tuberculosis treatment has not been achieved (82.7%). This study aims to determine the modeling of the number of tuberculosis cases and what factors have a significant effect on tuberculosis in Indonesia with the Geographically Weighted Generalized Poisson Regression (GWGPR). The results of the analysis using GWGPR shows that 12 provincial groups were formed according to variables that had a significant effect on the number of tuberculosis cases in Indonesia. There are 3 variables that have a significant effect on all provinces in Indonesia, the percentage of poor people (X1), population density (X2), and the percentage of people of productive age (X8). A variable that has no significant effect on all provinces in Indonesia is the percentage of households that have access to proper drinking water source services (X4).

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Published

2023-03-09